What's Driving Democratic Decline? Elites, the Public, or Both?
By Allison K Ralph and Maya Radwan
Democratic institutions in the U.S. are under visible strain. Judicial independence is being challenged. Press access is being curtailed with the US press freedom ranking falling to a historical low. Norms that once seemed foundational are now up for negotiation.
So what’s driving this unraveling? Is the greater threat from those in power, undermining democracy from the top, or from a public that has grown disillusioned, disengaged, or even complicit? Understanding where democratic erosion begins shapes how we think about how to stop it and how to build something better in its place.
If you are reading this, you are likely already concerned about the state of democracy in America. The good news is that, no matter where you sit, there is some good you can do.
Top-Down or Bottom-Up? The Core Tension
Democracies rarely collapse overnight. More often, they erode gradually through calculated decisions made by those in power and through the slow disengagement of the public.
Some argue the fault lies chiefly with elites. Elected leaders exploit legal ambiguities, politicize courts, and chip away at civil liberties—not with a dramatic coup, but with a steady erosion of norms. In the U.S., recent developments illustrate how this plays out: a provision in a proposed budget bill that would limit judicial enforcement powers, or new restrictions on press access within the Pentagon under the current administration. These actions may be legal, but they weaken norms of transparency, accountability, and institutional independence.
On the other hand, when citizens lose faith in democracy, disengage from civic life, or even vote for authoritarian figures, they create space for these abuses to take root. Cultural decay marked by distrust, polarization, and cynicism can make the work of democratic dismantling far easier. Low voter turnout in local elections or the normalization of political violence, as seen on January 6, 2021, signals that the problem isn’t confined to Washington.
In our view, these dynamics don’t compete, but compound. A feedback loop emerges: elite transgressions weaken public trust, and public disengagement emboldens further elite overreach. From our standpoint as strategists in the pro-democracy field, we believe understanding the interplay between these two dynamics can help shape effective strategy.
The Loop
In How Democracies Die, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt name this dynamic directly: democracies are dismantled from within, often by those elected to uphold them. Their analysis focuses on what they call “would-be authoritarians” leaders who stretch or break democratic norms not all at once, but step by step. These leaders don’t need to overthrow the system; they work through it. They use legal mechanisms to target opponents, tilt elections, and weaken oversight, all while maintaining a façade of legitimacy.
The real danger, Levitsky and Ziblatt argue, is when this behavior becomes normalized, when institutions meant to safeguard democracy fail to act as guardrails. Political parties stop policing their own. Courts are packed or bypassed. The press is labeled as the enemy. And the public, worn down or distracted, begins to accept what would once have been unacceptable.
Levitsky and Ziblatt also stress that democracy depends as much on informal norms, mutual toleration, and institutional forbearance as it does on written rules. When these unwritten agreements start to break down, legal structures alone can't save a system already hollowed out from within.
This slow erosion of norms—enabled by elite inaction and public fatigue—isn’t new. Madeleine Albright’s Fascism: A Warning places this dynamic in historical context. Drawing on her experience as a diplomat and scholar, she shows how authoritarianism often rises through democratic channels with rhetoric that inflames resentment and distorts reality.
Albright highlights how would-be autocrats thrive on societal division: turning neighbors against each other, undermining trust in institutions, and branding critics as threats to national unity. But the deeper danger, she argues, lies in what people come to accept. When cruelty becomes entertainment, when lies become loyalty tests, when silence becomes self-protection, democracy doesn’t need to be overthrown. It quietly recedes.
Her work illuminates the other end of the feedback loop from Levitsky and Ziblatt. If they warn of institutional drift, Albright shows how emotional manipulation and cultural surrender make that drift possible. The slow death of democracy, in her view, is not just a political failure but a moral one.
What Builds a Democracy Back?
Rachel Kleinfeld picks up where these analyses leave off. In A Savage Order and in her more recent work with the Carnegie Endowment, Kleinfeld focuses on how societies recover from democratic decay especially when violence, corruption, and mistrust run deep. Her key insight is that top-down reform is rarely enough. Enduring change must be powered from below.
Kleinfeld shows that the U.S. is already exhibiting signs of democratic backsliding seen in other countries. She warns of rising political violence and the constriction of civic space, primarily understood as the legal and cultural environment in which nonprofit organizations, media, and advocacy groups operate. This shrinking space is driven by disinformation campaigns, regulatory threats, and legislative proposals aimed at weakening the sector’s ability to function. For example, the “nonprofit killer” bill could allow the IRS to revoke tax-exempt status from nonprofits without due process—jeopardizing the foundations of organized civil society.
In addition to broadsides against nonprofit independence, the Trump administration has repeatedly attacked specific institutions perceived as ideologically hostile. In the past few weeks the administration froze over $2 billion in federal funding to Harvard University, attempted to revoke its ability to enroll international students, and ordered the cancellation of all remaining federal contracts with the university. These measures, justified under claims of antisemitism and ideological bias, have been widely condemned as politically motivated overreach and a chilling signal to other institutions.
So how do we respond?
Kleinfeld argues that public opinion and civil society are the primary vehicles through which democratic recovery becomes possible. As she writes in Persuasion, there’s no substitute for communities making their voices heard.
Kleinfeld lays out five interlocking strategies in her guide for democratic renewal: strengthen institutions, reduce polarization, promote civic engagement, ensure accountability, and protect civil liberties. Reform can’t succeed if the culture that sustains it is broken. Trust, participation, and belonging are the soil in which democracy grows.
If that sounds daunting, take heart. American democratic decline didn’t begin in a single moment or through a single actor. Like we mentioned earlier, it unfolded through a feedback loop: elite transgressions eroded public trust, and public disengagement emboldened further elite overreach. Which means that rebuilding it isn’t just possible—it’s distributed. There are many ways to begin.
And that same loop can run in reverse. When civil society mobilizes, and people organize, demand better, and refuse to normalize the erosion—they can restore norms, fortify institutions, and rewire the incentives that shape political behavior. The momentum that once fueled decay can be redirected toward renewal.
What’s Next?
We said at the top that everyone has a role. If you are an individual, start small:
→ Subscribe to a local paper.
→ Talk politics without writing someone off.
→ Volunteer at a poll site.
→ Call your rep—yes, even when they agree with you.
→ Say something when someone else’s rights are on the line (they are yours too).
If you are in a nonprofit, no matter your focus, you can organize at the institutional level to preserve civic space. If you are working toward social cohesion, racial healing, equitable economic mobility, voting rights, depolarization, or any other mission that brings society closer together, you have opportunities to:
Partner strategically to create as broad a coalition as possible.
Why? Pushing outside your political bubble reduces polarization and increases the likelihood that wins will be long-lasting.
Cast positive visions relevant to a wide audience rather than leveraging worry.
Why? Leading with problems causes fatigue and burnout.
Whether you work primarily with the public or aim for structural reform, partner with organizations doing the other.
Why? Since social change happens at the personal and governmental levels at the same time, moving in concert can speed up the rate of positive change.
If you’re unsure about what to do next to meet this moment, please contact us at Cohesion Strategy. We help nonprofit clients understand this current landscape of social change and institutional threat in the US, and develop strategies to survive and thrive.
None of this fixes democracy overnight. But democracy was never built overnight. It’s held up by the people who decide, again and again, that it’s worth the work.